The formula
Hypothetical example, not a measured platform result: a $50 pack has an 80% chance of a $35 card, a 15% chance of an $80 card and a 5% chance of a $300 card. That's 0.80 × 35 + 0.15 × 80 + 0.05 × 300 = $28 + $12 + $15 = $55. Divide $55 by $50 and the EV is 110%.
There is no industry-standard "fair" EV, and Verified Repack does not grade, publish or claim EV, RTP or return figures for any platform. EV from your own inputs is only as good as those inputs, and it says nothing about variance or the chance of a loss.
Why the average pull isn't your pull
EV is a probability-weighted average, not a prediction for one opening. A rare high-value outcome can raise the mean above the median. Whether most pulls fall below the mean depends on the full distribution.
Use the floor to assess the stated minimum outcome, and the median or full distribution to understand typical results. A floor is not a prediction. If a low outcome would push you to spend again, skip the purchase.
Card value is not cash
A card listed at $100 is not $100 in your bank account. Cash proceeds depend on the available buyback or resale price, less applicable fees and shipping. Check the offer's valuation basis and withdrawal conditions.
Run your own numbers
Our EV calculator takes a pack price, up to four tiers and a buyback rate, then shows the probability-weighted card value implied by your own inputs. It doesn't verify any seller's odds or values.