Begin with card-value EV
Hypothetical $50 pack: an 80% chance of a $35 card, 15% of an $80 card and 5% of a $300 card. The weighted average is $55, so card-value EV is 110% of the $50 price.
Those numbers assume accurate values and probabilities. They aren't measured returns for a real pack, and the average isn't a promise about one opening.
Apply the exit to every outcome
If every outcome has an available 85% buyback on those same values, expected proceeds are $55 × 0.85 = $46.75. Cash EV is 93.5%, a $3.25 expected shortfall against the $50 purchase before other charges.
You can multiply the whole EV by one rate only when that rate applies consistently to every outcome on the same valuation basis. Floors, different rates, offer exclusions and withdrawal costs need outcome-by-outcome treatment.
A floor loss is a scenario, not full risk
In the same example, the lowest-value outcome is $35. An 85% offer yields $29.75, leaving $20.25 of the pack price unrecovered. This outcome occurs 80% of the time in the hypothetical distribution, so it is also the median and most common result. It is not a verified platform payout guarantee.
If shipping or selling independently, use realistic net proceeds for each outcome instead. Fixed fees can matter more for low-value cards, and an advertised value may not be achievable.
Read the calculator with its assumptions
The EV calculator uses the values and probabilities you enter. It doesn't check a seller's inventory, authenticate a card or confirm a buyback will be paid.
Use accurate tier averages rather than a tier's maximum chase value. If you don't know those averages or the selection probabilities, report the uncertainty instead of presenting a precise percentage as verified.